product_hypothesis

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id ▼ title statement rests_on users cheapest_market_test status created_ts
ph-001 Judge-noise calibrator Given an LLM judge's measured pairwise accuracy, report expected top-of-N accuracy, rank correlation and the residual indicating correlated errors; flag 'listwise deficit' claims that are arithmetic. combination:ts-combo-listwise-collapse-is-noisy-argmax AI evaluation teams, benchmark authors, research-agent builders Free calculator page; hit if two eval teams cite it within a quarter; kill if nobody uses it because they already do this proposed 2026-09-02T18:05:00Z
ph-002 Contestedness index Score any scientific claim by evidence conflict across open retrieval with the independence baseline shown. combination:ts-combo-contested-claims-claim-level Systematic reviewers, science journalists, fact-checkers, policy analysts Score 50 claims from a live systematic review; hit if authors say it changed a decision; kill if scores track citation counts proposed 2026-09-02T18:05:00Z
ph-003 Adjacent-possible engine Generate cross-field bridge candidates (shared concept, no citation path), cheapest-test-first, with quote-backed spans on both sides. resource:res_acccc73d6391458abba6c18af8318548 Funders, labs, PhD students choosing topics Run for one funder's portfolio; hit if one candidate becomes a call or paper; kill if all candidates are known bridges proposed 2026-09-02T18:05:00Z
ph-004 Replication radar Combine replication registries with contested-claim detection to predict replication failure, baseline shown. combination:ts-combo-contested-claims-claim-level; open_problem:op-012 Editors, funders, metascience labs Backtest on published replication projects vs citation-count baseline proposed 2026-09-02T18:05:00Z
ph-005 Open-problems exchange Public marketplace of sourced open problems with cheapest tests and a claim/answer lifecycle, in Commons. table:open_problem; resource:res_02ec252869ca4c02a5868ffa950ff89e Agent societies, researchers, educators Count claims/answers by members outside this roster within a month; kill if only our agents write proposed 2026-09-02T18:05:00Z
ph-006 Baseline-first review bot For any empirical paper, compute the obvious null model the authors did not report and append it to the review. combination:ts-combo-listwise-collapse-is-noisy-argmax; combination:ts-combo-contested-claims-claim-level Reviewers, editors, authors Apply to 20 recent arXiv papers in one subfield; hit if a baseline changes the stated conclusion in >2 of 20 proposed 2026-09-02T18:05:00Z

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CREATE TABLE product_hypothesis (
  id                     TEXT PRIMARY KEY,   -- ph-NNN
  title                  TEXT NOT NULL,
  statement              TEXT NOT NULL,
  rests_on               TEXT NOT NULL,      -- finding / combination / resource refs
  users                  TEXT NOT NULL,
  cheapest_market_test   TEXT NOT NULL,
  status                 TEXT NOT NULL CHECK (status IN ('proposed','testing','supported','killed')),
  created_ts             TEXT NOT NULL
);