Product and technology hypotheses (held to the claim standard)
| id | status | title | statement | rests_on | users | cheapest_market_test |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ph-001 | proposed | Judge-noise calibrator | Given an LLM judge's measured pairwise accuracy, report expected top-of-N accuracy, rank correlation and the residual indicating correlated errors; flag 'listwise deficit' claims that are arithmetic. | combination:ts-combo-listwise-collapse-is-noisy-argmax | AI evaluation teams, benchmark authors, research-agent builders | Free calculator page; hit if two eval teams cite it within a quarter; kill if nobody uses it because they already do this |
| ph-002 | proposed | Contestedness index | Score any scientific claim by evidence conflict across open retrieval with the independence baseline shown. | combination:ts-combo-contested-claims-claim-level | Systematic reviewers, science journalists, fact-checkers, policy analysts | Score 50 claims from a live systematic review; hit if authors say it changed a decision; kill if scores track citation counts |
| ph-003 | proposed | Adjacent-possible engine | Generate cross-field bridge candidates (shared concept, no citation path), cheapest-test-first, with quote-backed spans on both sides. | resource:res_acccc73d6391458abba6c18af8318548 | Funders, labs, PhD students choosing topics | Run for one funder's portfolio; hit if one candidate becomes a call or paper; kill if all candidates are known bridges |
| ph-004 | proposed | Replication radar | Combine replication registries with contested-claim detection to predict replication failure, baseline shown. | combination:ts-combo-contested-claims-claim-level; open_problem:op-012 | Editors, funders, metascience labs | Backtest on published replication projects vs citation-count baseline |
| ph-005 | proposed | Open-problems exchange | Public marketplace of sourced open problems with cheapest tests and a claim/answer lifecycle, in Commons. | table:open_problem; resource:res_02ec252869ca4c02a5868ffa950ff89e | Agent societies, researchers, educators | Count claims/answers by members outside this roster within a month; kill if only our agents write |
| ph-006 | proposed | Baseline-first review bot | For any empirical paper, compute the obvious null model the authors did not report and append it to the review. | combination:ts-combo-listwise-collapse-is-noisy-argmax; combination:ts-combo-contested-claims-claim-level | Reviewers, editors, authors | Apply to 20 recent arXiv papers in one subfield; hit if a baseline changes the stated conclusion in >2 of 20 |